Every run that costs more than a local 10-minute, 2 GB slot is estimated here before launch. Nothing below has been launched remotely.
Local runs so far (Ghost, all under 10 min and well under 2 GB)
| run | wall | artifact |
|---|---|---|
envelope.py full grid | 134 s | envelope.json |
assemble.py L=0.8 N=200 curve | 354 s | run_L08_N200.json |
assemble.py N scan 24..60 | < 60 s each | run_L08_N*.json |
k3.py | 1 s | k3.json, k3.out |
harden.py L=0.8 T#=100 sine:16 N=96 | 28 s | harden_L08_T100_sine16*.json |
harden.py L=0.8 T#=200 H=0 N=200 | 188 s | harden_L08_T200_none.json |
unit_cost.py | 6 s | unit_cost.out |
Proposed: L = 1.19 (support 2.38) on Modal, two stages
Parameters (chosen from phase 1 and 2, not tuned to a result)
- Envelope sine:16, S = 3.86347732... (enclosure-carrying,
envelope.json). Envelope threshold 2π e^S = 299.6. D = 16 rather than 64 because the quadrature bound grows like cosh(b_e · D log 7): at D = 64 the Bernstein bound with GL-96 lands near 1e-52 per entry, too close to the expected floor; at D = 16 it is near 1e-62. D = 64 would only lower T# by 7%. - T# = 500: β* = log(500/2π) − 1/500 − S = 0.5115. Resolution height T* = 2π e^{2.38} = 67.9, so T# ≈ 7.4 T*. At L = 0.8 the reduced form with H turned positive near 2.1 T* and reached 70% of the window floor by 3.2 T*, so positivity of R_H at T# = 500 is expected but not known: stage A measures it before stage B pays for the bounds.
- Expected λ_min: near Zhu's measured 1e-48 to 1e-46 (his 950-mode run, §7). Working precision 384 bits (115 digits).
- x = T# L = 595. Hardened tail bound (Zhu (12), x^n/(2n+1)!!) needs 2N ≈ 2 x for ε_B ≈ e^-460: N = 640 (orders 0..1278). Measured-only convergence at L = 0.8 needed 2N ≈ 1.15 x: N = 360 for stage A.
- Panels h = 1/2 on [0, 500]: 1000 panels.
Measured unit costs (Ghost, M1, 384 bits, unit_cost.out)
| item | cost |
|---|---|
| spherical Bessel column, K = 1259, x = 540 | 151 ms / node |
| spherical Bessel column, K = 629, x = 500 | 33 ms / node |
| symbol Ψ + H at one node | 0.5 ms |
| panel product N = 630, q = 96 | 1.4 s (two per panel) |
| panel product N = 315, q = 96 | 0.3 s |
| full N = 630 product (residual check) | 2.9 s |
Stage A: measured scout (λ_min(R_H) vs T#, no error bounds)
Approved by the supervisor 2026-09-27 (stage A only). N = 360, q = 64, prec 384, sine:16, panels of 1/2 on [0, 525]. Checkpoints T# = 320, 350, 400, 450, 500, 525 (β* = 0.06 ... 0.56; 300 is dead since 2π e^S = 299.6). Units are t-ranges with checkpoints on their boundaries: [0,80], [80,160], [160,240], [240,320], [320,350], [350,400], [400,450], [450,500], [500,525], so 9 units, the largest 160 panels. Each returns the lower triangles of its partial sums G, C_Ψ, C_H (exact Arb midpoints plus radii) and writes them to a Modal volume on completion. Per node ≈ 45 ms (Bessel K = 719, interpolated from the measured 33 and 151 ms) → 67 200 nodes ≈ 3 000 s; products ≈ 1050 × 3 × 0.2 s ≈ 630 s. ≈ 1.0 core-hour; largest unit ≈ 10 min. The reduction (sums, LDL, inverse iteration at each checkpoint) runs locally, under 10 min.
Stage B: hardened run (only if stage A shows λ_min(R_H(500)) > 0)
N = 500 (harden.py's own tail arithmetic at x = 595: ε_B ≈ 8e-88, against 6.7e+08 at N = 400 and 2e-37 at N = 450), q = 96, prec 384. Bessel cost at K = 999 interpolated ≈ 100 ms per node: 96 000 nodes ≈ 9 600 s; products 1000 × 2 × 0.9 s ≈ 1 800 s. ≈ 3.2 core-hours. Needs a fresh approval after stage A. Plus the final positivity step on one container, < 0.1 core-hour.
Positivity step and endpoint (audited after referee REVIEW §5; stage A showed interval LDL undecided at cond ~1e48, so no interval LDL here).
- Ã: the assembled N × N leading block as Arb balls; E_ij := rad(Ã_ij) + ε_Q,ij bounds |A_ij − mid(Ã_ij)| for the exact block A.
- Measure first: midpoint inverse iteration on the N = 500 block gives λ_meas (adding modes can only lower λ_min, so stage A's N = 360 value is not used). Choose λ₀ = 0.99 λ_meas, an exact dyadic.
- L̃: 384-bit Cholesky of mid(Ã) − λ₀I, rounded to exact dyadics.
- Residual in
arb_mat: Rres = mid(Ã) − λ₀I − L̃L̃ᵀ, every operand exact, so Rres is a rigorous ball matrix; r := max_i Σ_j |Rres_ij|, taken as an Arb upper bound. Then λ_min(mid(Ã) − λ₀I) ≥ −r (L̃L̃ᵀ ⪰ 0, Weyl). - ‖A − mid(Ã)‖₂ ≤ e := max_i Σ_j E_ij (upper bound). Hence λ_min(A) ≥ λ₀ − r − e (Weyl).
- Full space, Zhu (13): λ_min(R_H) ≥ min(λ₀ − r − e, β* − ε_D) − ε_B.
- Report only the Arb lower endpoint of step 6, as an exact dyadic and as a decimal rounded down (
harden.pynow does this). Never a float(), never a display midpoint.
Acceptance: the endpoint of step 6 is positive. Expected sizes from the L = 0.8 run and stage A: r ~ 1e-110, e ~ 1e-60, ε_B ~ 1e-87, against λ₀ ~ 5.7e-48, so each subtraction is 12 or more orders below λ₀; every term is still written out and subtracted. Before any run, the reducer is also tested on the L = 0.8 case (N = 96), on Modal, where it must return an endpoint ≤ the LDL-based 1.158e-17 − ε_B and positive. Units: 50 containers × 20 panels (10 t-units each), ≈ 6.5 min each.
Total both stages ≈ 4.2 core-hours, under the 20 core-hour cap. Wall time with 10 to 50 parallel containers: under 15 minutes per stage. Dollar cost not estimated here (Modal's current CPU rate not checked).
Checkpointing (compute rule 4)
One unit = a contiguous block of panels. Each unit writes, on completion, the lower triangle of its partial sums (stage A: G, C_Ψ, C_H separately so the T# curve can be read at every checkpoint; stage B: the single matrix C_{Ψ+H−β*}) as exact Arb midpoint mantissa/exponent plus radius (≈ 60 bytes per entry, ≈ 12 MB per matrix at N = 640), and its quadrature-bound contribution. A restarted unit starts from zero; no unit exceeds 7 minutes, so preemption costs at most one unit. The reducer sums units in Arb and runs the positivity step. Memory per container < 1 GB.
Owner
The session that launches it watches it to a terminal state (compute rule 5).
Proposed: K2 on Davenport-Heilbronn (k2_modal.py), one container
L = (log 47)/2 = 1.925 (DH form negative there, λ ≈ −0.3, even sector, per hunts/rogue_frontier/weil_trunc/dhneg_log.md). H = 0, valid S_DH = Σ 2|Λ_f(n)|/√n; the job reports the least T# at which any valid β* could be positive (expected astronomically large, so the valid pipeline cannot return a bound). Lesion part: λ_min and LDL inertia of R(T#) at T# = 100, 150 (both past the off-line ordinate 85.7) with β* forced to 0.05, 0.5, 2. N = 150, GL-32, panels 1/2, 256 bits: 9600 nodes × ~8 ms (Bessel K = 299) ≈ 80 s, products and six N = 150 LDLs ≈ 60 s. ≈ 0.05 core-hour, one unit, result written to the volume and to k2_dh.json.
Remote run ledger (Modal, profile teal-sea, 2026-09-27, all apps now stopped)
| app | what | outcome | compute |
|---|---|---|---|
| ap-mucAZVkQ7RThKhLbUB9CuN | stage A: 9 units + first reducer | 9/9 units written to volume oob-envelope-stages; reducer ran; one client heartbeat warning | units 2776 container-s (273, 267, 316, 401, 146, 323, 425, 420, 206); reducer ≈ 110 s; wall 535 s |
| ap-u5ihCmzqiW28DuFqefg6Tx | stage A reducer rerun 1 (adds midpoint inertia) | failed in seconds: the unit glob matched the reducer's own stageA_L119_reduced.json | ≈ 0 |
| ap-G9iIG9H1qGBRi3h6GPtRmj | stage A reducer rerun 2 | success; wrote stageA_L119_reduced.json to the volume (read back with modal volume get) | wall 154 s |
| ap-WbdVjMHe1JYCD0rXtfV4LO | K2 first launch (18:50:50Z) | failed: container import raised IndexError (repo path evaluated inside the container) and crash-looped until stopped from the CLI at about 18:59Z. I read the local "Runner failed" as the app being dead and did not check its state; that was the error. Logs: k2_crashloop_ap-WbdVjMHe1JYCD0rXtfV4LO.log (8 import tracebacks retrieved) | failed container starts only; upper bound 8.5 min wall, container time not reported by the CLI |
| ap-unujT9tiLNIeJTQf2v1RKm | K2 relaunch (18:53:38Z, under the K2 approval, before the "do not rerun" message) | success; k2_dh.json identical to the volume copy | 70 s |
Totals: stage A ≈ 0.85 core-hours (estimate 1.0); K2 ≈ 0.02 core-hour plus the crash-loop's failed starts (estimate 0.05). Dollar cost not read from Modal billing. Local log k2.log is interleaved: the crash-looping process kept writing at its old offset into the file the relaunch had truncated; it contains the successful run's output, but the authoritative record is k2_dh.json. Future launches use a fresh log file per app and check modal app list for the terminal state instead of the local exit.
Readback of remote outputs (exact grades)
stageA_L119_reduced.json(from the volume). N = 360 leading block of R_H, L = 1.19, sine:16, 384 bits, measured (no quadrature, tail or coupling bound). Midpoint LDL (plain 384-bit, measured): one negative pivot at T# = 320, none at 350 to 525. Inverse iteration λ: 1.65e-48, 4.15e-48, 5.17e-48, 5.776e-48, 6.00e-48 at T# = 350, 400, 450, 500, 525. Arb interval LDL: undecided (304 to 306 of 360 pivots) at every checkpoint. So there is no enclosure-grade statement about the sign of even this block, and none at all about the whole form.k2_dh.json(volume copy identical). Measured. Valid gate: S_DH = 25.59, β* > 0 needs T# ≳ e^25.82, so no bound (inconclusive, as required). Forced-β lesion rows: interval LDL undecided in all six; shifted inverse iteration at T# = 150, β forced 0.5: λ = −0.288, eigenvector beamed at t = 84.5 (76% of |F|² within ±6 of 85.699).
No further Modal run until a separate estimate and approval (K2 rerun, stage B).
Stage B (approved by Thomas, 2026-09-27: build, validate, execute)
Code: stage_b_modal.py (units + reducer; positivity step 1 to 7 above, error terms are harden.py steps 2 and 3 called verbatim). Plan as estimated above: N = 500, GL-96, 384 bits, T# = 500, sine:16, 50 units of 20 panels, ≈ 3.2 core-hours.
Validation on Modal (config val, L = 4/5, T# = 100, N = 96, GL-64, 256 bits)
App ap-8ektPW0uhAr2FHdT1Tn6RJ, 2 units (12 s, 18 s) + reducer (1.6 s), wall 30 s. Result stage_b_val_result.json (volume readback).
- Residual route, λ₀ = 0.99 λ_meas: λ_min(R_H) ≥ 1.14675686334e-17 (exact dyadic stored). r = 3.3e-76, e = 3.7e-42 (row sum of entry radius
- ε_Q), ε_B = 3.03e-44. λ₀ = 0.9999 λ_meas: ≥ 1.15822443198e-17.
- Consistency: positive, below 1.158e-17 − ε_B (the LDL-proved value), and the tight run lies above the referee's 1.1579e-17, below the measured λ_meas = 1.15834026601e-17 (referee's midpoint Ritz value 1.15834026600857…e-17: agrees). The harden.py interval-LDL route on the same unit data passes at 1.158e-17 (0 negative, 0 undecided).
- Lesion that discriminates: midpoint Cholesky at 1.01 λ_meas fails (negative pivot at index 29) in every row, so the step cannot pass above λ_min(mid A).
- Lesions that do NOT discriminate here (recorded, not claimed as passes): dropping H or flipping its sign still leaves a positive form at L = 0.8, T# = 100 (λ 1.150e-17, 1.141e-17), because H is small in band at this L. The H-sign gate remains
envelope_check.py.
Stage B run (L = 119/100, T# = 500), terminal
| app | what | outcome | compute |
|---|---|---|---|
| ap-ikiEy2RRqhkbWbVwRYFErU | one-unit measurement, panels 980..1000 | success, 210 s (estimate 6.5 min) | 218 s wall |
| ap-meQWMiDM3O33eRTJRUHoji | 50 units (unit 49 skipped: already on volume) + reducer | success, 50/50 unit files, one client heartbeat warning, no unit failure | units 4849 container-s (max 249 s), reducer 88 s, wall 502 s |
Total stage B ≈ 1.4 core-hours (estimate 3.2). All three stage B apps stopped in modal app list. Result read back from the volume: stage_b_result.json, log stage_b.log.
Numbers (all in the JSON as Arb strings or exact dyadics): β* = 0.511253705003064…, ε_Q,max = 6.9e-66, node shift ≤ 7.3e-113, e = 2.29e-63, λ_meas = 5.77564879389e-48 (N = 500, GL-96; stage A N = 360, GL-64 gave 5.775648793894e-48, same to 12 digits), λ₀ = 0.99 λ_meas, r = 1.42e-113, ε_D = 1.8e-184, ε_B = 1.44e-87. λ_min(R_H) ≥ 5.71789230595e-48 (decimal rounded down from the exact dyadic lower endpoint). Cholesky at 1.01 λ_meas fails (pivot 209), as it must.
Negative controls (Modal, 2026-09-27, after stage B)
| app | what | outcome | compute |
|---|---|---|---|
| ap-TtQ0os4EX4HAAgTufDgD97 | val rerun with planted in-band lesions, L = 4/5, T# = 100 | success | units 20 s + 23 s, reducer 2 s |
| ap-OuY0B2T8yRU4DsA21MDAIc | val60: L = 4/5, T# = 60, where R_H was measured indefinite | success | units 10 s + 10 s, reducer < 5 s |
Results read back from the volume: stageBval2_L08_result.json, stageBval60_L08_result.json. Total ≈ 0.02 core-hours.
- T# = 60 negative control fires. β* = 0.6845 > 0 there, so the valid gate is open, yet the positivity step returns no bound: the midpoint Cholesky of A itself breaks (pivot 19, −1.07), and the harden.py interval LDL on the same data finds exactly one negative eigenvalue (0 undecided). This matches the measured indefiniteness at T# = 60 in
run_L08_N200.json. So the step does refuse a form that is truly indefinite, with every error term in place. - Planted in-band constant (−2e-17 · G) fires: no bound (pivot 19).
- Planted in-band cos(0.95·2L·t), amplitude ±1e-16: does not discriminate. λ moves in the 12th digit. The amplitude is too small against the form's floor; recorded, not claimed as a pass.
- Main row reproduced bit for bit (≥ 1.14675686334e-17 at 0.99 λ_meas; ≥ 1.15822443198e-17 at 0.9999).